I've never been much into baseball. I was a homer back when the Red Sox won the series in 2004 and again in 2007 but lost interest when I moved back to Indiana. Since that time my interest has waned...that is until this year.
I started getting analytical with NBA this year. I did well and started to understand that the right stats can really help to handicap a game. Once the MLB started up I really started digging into the research and sabermetrics stuff. I had great thoughts of all the different types of statistical systems I could come up with to help predict scores, moneylines and totals.
Thats when I realized that others have already been doing that for multiple years. I decided to search out a few of the websites that actually offer their data already put into a model. After back testing previous seasons I could tell that one in particular really had the correct coefficients down to be able to predict moneylines and totals.
*Keep in mind most models are going to break a game down to a percentage. That means it will tell you the percentage that each team has to win. They then set a moneyline based on that percentage. I'm not always going to win but the model wouldn't be accurate if I did.
With the knowledge of what true lines should be, plus my own research on pitcher vs batter, weather, and other intangibles I've actually started betting baseball. I've done pretty well so far this year. And the thing that I love the most about my new found sport to gamble on is that there are a gazillion games! I mean there are nearly 15 games a day for the entire season. Thats plenty of spots to find value.
Now if I could just get my wife to enjoy watching the games that I'm intently sweating..
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