So last night was one of the worst nights I've had in months. I swear every time I see someone start a site or a blog they always start on the down side...anyways I've learned a lot from my downswings and I think that's what is most important.
In game betting- This has been the thing that would hurt me the most in the past. Although I do believe that in game can offer value in both football and basketball, it very rarely offers any in baseball IMO. The lines get drastic, the run lines aren't what they started to be and totals are either teeny tiny or gigantic. Needless to say when I would be losing I always looked for action to recoup my losses. This usually didn't work, and when my day was over I'd be disappointed because I had actually started to win but my losses from in game would basically break me even. I was proud to say the temptation to bet in game wasn't there last night and hadn't been there for quite some time.
Managing expectations- Everyone is going to lose. Its just the fact of the hustle that we are in. All the greats will tell you at best they are able to hit 60ish percent. That means they lose 40% of the time. I have come to the realization that I'm not going to win every night. Now it feels like I'm flying high when I sweep a big card, but I have to balance that with the way it feels to know you got the best of the number and it still ended up a loser.(I had more than one of those last night) You have to be able to lose with grace in this game and not go off the deep end.
Think of down swings and losses as tuition. You've got to pay to learn in most every aspect of life and its no different here. As long as you can learn something from each loss that you can take into account at a later time, it can be looked at as money well spent. I hope this helps someone from jumping off that ledge in the midst of a down swing; we've all been there.
Saturday, August 10, 2013
Thursday, August 8, 2013
Baseball 2013
I've never been much into baseball. I was a homer back when the Red Sox won the series in 2004 and again in 2007 but lost interest when I moved back to Indiana. Since that time my interest has waned...that is until this year.
I started getting analytical with NBA this year. I did well and started to understand that the right stats can really help to handicap a game. Once the MLB started up I really started digging into the research and sabermetrics stuff. I had great thoughts of all the different types of statistical systems I could come up with to help predict scores, moneylines and totals.
Thats when I realized that others have already been doing that for multiple years. I decided to search out a few of the websites that actually offer their data already put into a model. After back testing previous seasons I could tell that one in particular really had the correct coefficients down to be able to predict moneylines and totals.
*Keep in mind most models are going to break a game down to a percentage. That means it will tell you the percentage that each team has to win. They then set a moneyline based on that percentage. I'm not always going to win but the model wouldn't be accurate if I did.
With the knowledge of what true lines should be, plus my own research on pitcher vs batter, weather, and other intangibles I've actually started betting baseball. I've done pretty well so far this year. And the thing that I love the most about my new found sport to gamble on is that there are a gazillion games! I mean there are nearly 15 games a day for the entire season. Thats plenty of spots to find value.
Now if I could just get my wife to enjoy watching the games that I'm intently sweating..
I started getting analytical with NBA this year. I did well and started to understand that the right stats can really help to handicap a game. Once the MLB started up I really started digging into the research and sabermetrics stuff. I had great thoughts of all the different types of statistical systems I could come up with to help predict scores, moneylines and totals.
Thats when I realized that others have already been doing that for multiple years. I decided to search out a few of the websites that actually offer their data already put into a model. After back testing previous seasons I could tell that one in particular really had the correct coefficients down to be able to predict moneylines and totals.
*Keep in mind most models are going to break a game down to a percentage. That means it will tell you the percentage that each team has to win. They then set a moneyline based on that percentage. I'm not always going to win but the model wouldn't be accurate if I did.
With the knowledge of what true lines should be, plus my own research on pitcher vs batter, weather, and other intangibles I've actually started betting baseball. I've done pretty well so far this year. And the thing that I love the most about my new found sport to gamble on is that there are a gazillion games! I mean there are nearly 15 games a day for the entire season. Thats plenty of spots to find value.
Now if I could just get my wife to enjoy watching the games that I'm intently sweating..
My new venture
Ok so today marks a new day for me. I have finally decided to start a public place to amass all of my thoughts and bets. I've thought of doing this for a while but have always found an excuse not to. However this year I have finally decided I'm going to get serious with this whole handicapping business and see what happens.
A bit about me:
I'm in my mid 20's, from the Midwest, and have a regular 9-5. I have been handicapping for about 3 years now. At first I had no clue what I was doing and couldn't understand why the Pat's couldn't cover 10+ points every other game. Since that time I've tried many different strategies to become "sharp". I've paid for plays, I've trailed people, and tried to do some basic math with stats to be a winner. At best I was probably 50/50; and we all know that doesn't work.
I've recently decided to get serious with my handicapping and have started to implement strategies and systems that help me with what I do. I'll get into that more in the future, but lets just say I've started to look at this from a financial market standpoint and it has really helped me to hone in my wagering skills.
So what to expect from this site:
I am going to use this as my personal journal/diary. I will talk about everything from what my selections are/ why I made the selections to the psychology behind a handicapper that does this just as much, if not more than his day job. I will talk about my systems a bit and hope that people looking for good information out there will find it helpful. I'll ramble at times, and get too technical at times, but hey its my site so I guess I can do as I please.
Thanks for reading!
Zac
A bit about me:
I'm in my mid 20's, from the Midwest, and have a regular 9-5. I have been handicapping for about 3 years now. At first I had no clue what I was doing and couldn't understand why the Pat's couldn't cover 10+ points every other game. Since that time I've tried many different strategies to become "sharp". I've paid for plays, I've trailed people, and tried to do some basic math with stats to be a winner. At best I was probably 50/50; and we all know that doesn't work.
I've recently decided to get serious with my handicapping and have started to implement strategies and systems that help me with what I do. I'll get into that more in the future, but lets just say I've started to look at this from a financial market standpoint and it has really helped me to hone in my wagering skills.
So what to expect from this site:
I am going to use this as my personal journal/diary. I will talk about everything from what my selections are/ why I made the selections to the psychology behind a handicapper that does this just as much, if not more than his day job. I will talk about my systems a bit and hope that people looking for good information out there will find it helpful. I'll ramble at times, and get too technical at times, but hey its my site so I guess I can do as I please.
Thanks for reading!
Zac
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